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Monday, August 11, 2014

'On Macroeconomic Forecasting'

Simon Wren-Lewis:

...The rather boring truth is that it is entirely predictable that forecasters will miss major recessions, just as it is equally predictable that each time this happens we get hundreds of articles written asking what has gone wrong with macro forecasting. The answer is always the same - nothing. Macroeconomic model based forecasts are always bad, but probably no worse than intelligent guesses.

More here.

    Posted by on Monday, August 11, 2014 at 01:08 PM in Econometrics, Economics, Macroeconomics | Permalink  Comments (17)


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