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Sunday, January 25, 2015

Fiscal Cliff Forecasts

Robert Waldmann:

2013 and all that II: A fairly large number of economists have argued that Keynesians predicted that the fiscal cliff January 2013 and sequestration March 2013 would cause a recession. A fairly large number of Keynesian economists have denied personally making that prediction (including the oversigned). Only following a complaint in comments will I look up all the links at which I just hinted.
I think it is fairly easy to decide if the orthodox Keynesian view was that 2013 fiscal contraction would cause a recession. The reason is that official forecasts are Keynesian. The forecasting models range from new Keynesian with added epicycles for the Bank of England to paleo Keynesian for the Fed.
So I decided to look up forecasts for 2013. The advantage is that official forecasts include a precise guess of the expected value of future variables...

    Posted by on Sunday, January 25, 2015 at 09:54 AM in Economics, Fiscal Policy | Permalink  Comments (25)


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