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Thursday, January 22, 2015

Interview of Donald Kohn

From an interview of Donald Kohn by Cecchetti & Schoenholtz:

Interview: Donald Kohn: ... Where should we be looking now for financial stability risks given this experience?
Vice Chairman Kohn: The response of the authorities to the crisis has concentrated on banks, especially large banks, and other systemically important financial institutions, including insurance companies, investment banks, etc. I think those financial institutions that have been the target of the authorities’ attention are in much better shape, and I don’t think they constitute a risk to financial stability today. So I don’t think that what nearly brought the system down before, a Lehman Brothers kind of collapse, is currently a risk.
There could be mispriced bonds. People have pointed to junk bonds and dollar-denominated emerging market bonds and asked whether the risk in those bonds has been accurately valued by the market.  With regard to the consequences of a price adjustment, I would contrast the dot-com boom and bust with the housing boom and bust. The difference was the participation of intermediaries. Most price adjustments are fine. There could be quite a bit of volatility in the market as prices adjust. But I don’t see it having the same kind of risk characteristics that the subprime market had in the United States. ... I would look at ... the markets and the pricing of risks, including liquidity risks...
Also, I would look at what remains of the shadow banks. In the tri-party RP [repurchase] markets, the money markets funds and other cases, there have been some fixes. But I do think we need to be careful that – as we put more restrictions on banks and other systemically important institutions – if their activity migrates to other places, it doesn’t do so in a way that has systemic risk associated with it. I don’t see that today, but I think it’s something we have to be careful about in the future.

Tri-party repo (where we saw a run on the shadow banking system during the crisis, a vulnerability that still exists) is what worries me the most.

    Posted by on Thursday, January 22, 2015 at 11:09 AM in Economics, Financial System, Regulation | Permalink  Comments (5)


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