« Patience | Main | 'The Dangerous Separation of the American Upper Middle Class' »

Thursday, September 03, 2015

Latest from the GDPNow Forecasting Model

Interesting divergence between "Blue Chip" consensus and the GDPNow measure from the Atlanta Fed:

GDPNow: The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our new GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release. Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet.
Latest forecast — September 3, 2015
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.5 percent on September 3, up from 1.3 percent on September 1. ...
Gdpnow-forecast-evolution
... As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate. That said, the forecasting error can still be substantial just prior to the “advance” GDP estimate release. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.

    Posted by on Thursday, September 3, 2015 at 10:47 AM in Economics | Permalink  Comments (8)


    Comments

    Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.