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Wednesday, September 23, 2015

'The Return of Policy Uncertainty'

Menzie Chinn:

The Return of Policy Uncertainty: From Hatzius et al., in Goldman Sachs Global Macro Research yesterday:

A federal shutdown due to a funding lapse looks no less likely than it did two weeks ago, and we believe the probability is nearly 50%. The Senate is expected to begin voting later this week on a funding extension, but the House looks unlikely to act until shortly before the September 30 deadline.

The impact on measured policy uncertainty is shown in Figure 1 below.

Policyuncert_pp1

Figure 1: Daily policy uncertainty index (blue), and 7 day trailing moving average (red). Source: Baker, Bloom and Davis, at policyuncertainty.com, accessed 9/22/2015.

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    Posted by on Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 12:15 AM in Economics, Politics | Permalink  Comments (5)


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