The Outsized Impact of the Fall in Commodity Prices on Global Trade

Brad Setser:

The Outsized Impact of the Fall in Commodity Prices on Global Trade: Global trade has not grown since the start of 2015.

Emerging market imports appear to be running somewhat below their 2014 levels.

Creeping protectionism? Perhaps.

But for now the underlying national data points to much more prosaic explanation.

The “turning” point in trade came just after oil prices fell. ...