Economist's View

Thread

I hope to begin posting again soon. I needed a break.

A Short Break

I should explain -- taking a few days away -- will be back soon.

Blog Note

Travel day today. Will post if and when I can.

Blog Note

Travel day (from cold to warm). Will post as I can.

Blog Note

Travel day. Not sure when I can post.

Note

My apologies for the lack of posts today, and for less than the usual number over the last few days. I am in Costa Rica taking a bit of a needed break -- I need some time away from my computer. I'll keep up as I can.

Note

Travel day today. Not sure when I will have Internet access again.

Blogging Note

Travel day. Will post as I can.

Have Blog, Will Travel

I am here today:

Royal Economic Society Conference 2015
University of Manchester, United Kingdom
 
March 30, 2015

• 09:00 to 11:00 Registration and Coffee/Tea, University Place Foyer
• 11:00 to 12:30 Special Sessions A
• 12:30 to 13:30 Buffet Lunch, Eats Restaurant
• 13:30 to 14:45 Sargan Lecture: Michael Keane: Labor Supply: Estimating the Roles of Human Capital and the Extensive Margin
• 14:45 to 15:15 Coffee / Tea Break, University Place Foyer
• 15:15 to 16:45 General Sessions 1
• 16:45 to 17:00 Coffee / Tea Break, University Place Foyer
• 17:00 to 18:30 EJ Anniversary Session: I
• 19:00 to 21:00 Reception

March 31, 2015

• 09:00 to 10:30 General Sessions 2
• 10:30 to 11:00 Coffee / Tea Break, University Place Foyer
• 11:00 to 12:30 Economic Journal Lecture: Philippe Aghion: Innovation, Income Inequality and Social Mobility
• 12:30 to 13:30 Buffet Lunch, Eats Restaurant
• 12:30 to 13:30 RES AGM (with lunch), Room 1.219
• 13:30 to 14:45 Hahn Lecture: Pierre-André Chiappori: Equivalence Scales Versus Indifference Scales
• 14:45 to 15:15 Coffee / Tea Break, University Place Foyer
• 15:15 to 16:45 General Sessions 3
• 16:45 to 17:00 Coffee / Tea Break, University Place Foyer
• 17:00 to 18:30 EJ Anniversary Session: II
• 19:30 to 23:00 Reception and Gala Dinner

April 1, 2015

• 09:00 to 10:30 General Sessions 4
• 10:30 to 11:00 Coffee / Tea Break, University Place Foyer
• 11:00 to 12:30 Special Sessions B
• 12:30 to 13:30 Buffet Lunch, Eats Restaurant
• 12:30 to 13:30 RES Women's Committee Special Session (with lunch), Room 1.219
• 13:30 to 14:45 Presidential Address: Sir Charles Bean: Living with Low for Long
• 14:45 to 15:15 Coffee / Tea Break, University Place Foyer
• 15:15 to 16:45 General Sessions 5
• 16:45 to 17:00 Coffee / Tea Break, University Place Foyer
• 17:00 to 18:30 EJ Anniversary Session: III

Note

Very long travel day today, so just a few quick posts before heading to the airport. Will post more as I can.

Travel Day

Have a very long travel day ahead of me, so no more posts until later...

Roll Your Own

It's a travel day, and I don't have time for any more posts until later (hopefully). So I'll turn it over to you in comments to fill in the gap. Thanks.

Have Blog, Will Travel

I am here today:

5th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences

19-23 August 2014, Lindau, Germany

Lindau Meeting of the Laureates of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel

The 5th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences will provide an open exchange of economic expertise and inspire cross-cultural and inter-generational encounters among economists from all over the world. From 19 to 23 August, the participating 18 Nobel Laureates and 460 young scientists will have plenty of opportunity for an intensive exchange of ideas.

The meeting will open on 20 August with a keynote address by the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and will also feature “a panoramic view on the situation and prospects in Latin America” by Mario Vargas Llosa, the 2010 Nobel Laureate in Literature. The scientific programme will address central fields of the discipline, ranging from econometrics, game theory, and neo-classical growth theory to mechanism design and systemic risk measurement. The overarching question “How useful is economics – how is economics useful?” will also be subject of the meeting’s closing panel debate on Mainau Island on Saturday, 23 August.

Programme

The scientific programme of the 5th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences will comprise lectures and panel discussions (accessible for all registered meeting participants and guests), as well as discussion sessions and master classes (both accessible only for participating Nobel Laureates and young scientists).

A detailed version of the programme including all lecture titles of the participating laureates with links to their abstracts is available in the Lindau Mediatheque. Please find a PDF version of the printed programme here. To get an overview of the meeting schedule you can also download the programme structure.

Participating Laureates

18 Laureates will attend the 5th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences. Among 17 economists there will also be Mario Vargas Llosa, Nobel Laureate in Literature in 2010, participating in the meeting. Please find further information on the Laureates' profiles including their CVs in the Lindau Mediatheque.

Robert Aumann
Peter DiamondLars Peter Hansen
Finn Kydland
Eric Maskin
Daniel McFadden
Robert C. Merton
James Mirrlees
Roger Myerson
Edmund Phelps
Edward Prescott
Alvin Roth 
Reinhard Selten
William Sharpe
Christopher Sims
Vernon Smith
Joseph Stiglitz
Mario Vargas Llosa

Today's Program:

Wednesday, 20 August

8.30 Plenary Lecture Inselhalle Lars Peter Hansen Uncertainty and Valuation

 09.00 Plenary Lecture Inselhalle Alvin E. Roth Repugnant Markets and Prohibited Transactions

09.30 Plenary Lecture Inselhalle Edmund S. Phelps Bringing Dynamism, Homegrown Innovation and Human Flourishing into Economics

10.00 Coffee Break

10.30 Plenary Lecture Inselhalle Christopher A. Sims Inflation, Fear of Inflation, and Public Debt

11.00 Plenary Lecture Inselhalle Vernon L. Smith Rethinking Market Experiments in the Shadow of Recessions: The Good and the Sometimes Ugly; Propositions on Recessions

14.00 Opening Ceremony Inselhalle Opening Ceremony

Angela Merkel Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Master of Ceremony

16.00 Discussion Lars Peter Hansen Discussion with young scientists

16.00 Discussion Edmund S. Phelps Discussion with young scientists

16.00 Alvin E. Roth Discussion with young scientists

16.00 Discussion Christopher A. Sims Discussion with young scientists

 16.00 Discussion Vernon L. Smith Discussion with young scientists

17.30 Break

20.00 Social Function Inselhalle Get-Together

Note

I am on the road and have a long travel day ahead of me, the second in a row, so probably not much more blogging until much later, if at all (I'm headed to UT Austin to teach a four week class beginning next Monday).

Have Blog, Will Travel

I am here today:

INET: Human After All - April 10-12: The Institute for New Economic Thinking is hosting its fifth annual conference with its partner the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) at the Fairmont Royal York Hotel in Toronto. The conference topic is the economics of innovation and the impact of innovation on society. Speakers will include a roster of newsmakers, including former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, Nobel laureates Joseph Stiglitz and James Heckman, former co-CEO of Research In Motion Jim Balsillie, Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane, former head of the U.K. Financial Services Authority Adair Lord Turner, Harvard University professor and best-selling author Michael Sandel, and author, essayist and President of PEN International, John Ralston Saul. Watch Live beginning at noon EST.

 I will post the conference schedule as soon as I can -- for some reason it's not yet available

Update: Today's schedule (I'll post Friday and Saturday later):

CANADIAN ROOM 1:00–2:45 PM LUNCH KEYNOTE ( OPENING ) Is Innovation Always A Good Thing? Technology and innovation create “disruption.” That basically means creating new markets or value networks, which eventually disrupts earlier technologies. New products, new inventions, new sources of demand are all possible. Yet, the very innovation that creates these opportunities also can create job losses as well as having significant distributional consequences for society as a whole.

The panel seeks to explore this duality.

• James Balsillie Chair, Centre for International Governance Innovation
• Lisa Cook Professor, Department of Economics, Michigan State University
• Robert Johnson President, Institute for New Economic Thinking
• Richard Nelson Professor of Economics, Columbia University
• Moderator Richard Waters Financial Times

CANADIAN ROOM 3:00–4:30 PM PLENARY PANEL
Innovation: Do Private Returns Produce the Social Returns We Need? The machines of the frst age replaced and multiplied the physical labor of humans and animals. The machines of the second age will replace and multiply our intelligence. The driving force behind this revolution will, argue the “techno-positivists,” exponentially increase the power (or exponentially reduce the cost) of computing. The celebrated example is Moore’s Law, named after Gordon Moore, a founder of Intel. For half a century, the number of transistors on a semiconductor chip has doubled at least every two years. But the information age has coincided with—and must, to some extent, have caused—adverse economic trends: stagnation of median real incomes; rising inequality of labor income and of the distribution of income between labor and capital; and growing long- term unemployment. Are the great gains in wealth and material prosperity created by our entrepreneurs in and of themselves sufficient to produce desired social returns demanded in today’s world?

• Simon Head Fellow, Institute for Public Knowledge, New York University, and Director of Programs, The New York Review of Books Foundation
• Mariana Mazzucato R.M. Phillips Professor in the Economics of Innovation, SPRU, University of Sussex
• Stian Westlake Executive Director, National Endowment for Science Technology and the Arts
• Dr. Joon Yun Partner and President, Palo Alto, LLC Moderator Quentin Hardy Deputy Tech Editor, The New York Times
• Moderator Quentin Hardy Deputy Tech Editor, The New York Time

CANADIAN ROOM 4:45–6:15 PM PLENARY PANEL
Have we Repaired Financial Regulations since Lehman? The 2008 global financial crisis led to the worst recession in the developed world since the Great Depression. Governments had to respond decisively on a large scale to contain the destructive impact of massive debt deflation, (although there is some question as to the degree to which this represented support for the financial ser - vices industry vs the needs of the real economy). Still, large financial institutions such as American International Group, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Countrywide Financial, Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Northern Rock, and Landsbanki collapsed; thousands of small-to-medium- sized financial institutions failed or needed to be rescued; millions of households lost their retirement savings, jobs, homes, and communities; and numerous non- financial businesses closed. Five years later, we are still experiencing the effects of the crisis. Are the financial reforms and regulations introduced since the onset of the crisis likely to be effective in preventing another catastrophe?

• Anat Admati Professor, Stanford Graduate School of Business
• Richard Bookstaber U.S. Treasury with the Office of Financial Research and FSOC
• Andrew Haldane Executive Director of Financial Stability, Bank of England
• Edward Kane Professor of Finance, Boston College
• Moderator Martin Wolf Financial Times

CANADIAN ROOM FOYER 6:15–7:15 PM Cocktail Reception

CANADIAN ROOM 7:15–9:00 PM KEYNOTE DINNER
Innovation: To What Purpose? Innovation is said to be essential for survival in most industries. Yet, innovation can be very risky—some inno - vations can even destroy value. How can managers and entrepreneurs know what to do, and how should this trade-o ff between innovation and risk be treated? What are the broader social goals that ought to be achieved via innovation?

• Presenter John Ralston Saul Novelist, Essayist and President, PEN International
• Moderator Rohinton Medhora President, Centre for International Governance Innovation

Note

Traveling today. I'll post as (and if) I can, but probably no more blogging until tonight.

On the Road Again...

Traveling to the NY Fed today, so just a few quick ones before my plane takes off at 5:40 a.m. (ughhh!!!).

The View from My Lanai

I've blogged from worse locations

Traveling

I am traveling to Hawaii today to get away from things for a bit. I've never been there before, so thought I'd go. I'll blog as I can.

Lamanai

The weather improved substantially my second day in Belize

I thought it was cool (dating myself) to be able to post Tim's reaction to the employment report while riding on a boat through the jungle to get here. I didn't expect to have access to the internet on this trip.

A Change in Plans

I was supposed to go on a three week trip tomorrow to Barcelona, Naples (actually the Amalfi coast), and Rome. But, well, fate intervened and the trip was canceled.

So I decided to go to Belize for a week or so instead. Don't ask me why I chose that location, I just did -- I needed to get a way for a bit. I leave later today.

I will blog as I can, hopefully seamlessly, but we'll see.

The view from My (Rented) Window

This is the view from my window today, so I probably shouldn't spend all day inside blogging (though I do have grading I need to finish today).

Back later.

NBER Economic Fluctuations & Growth Research Meeting

I was supposed to be here today, but a long flight delay made that impossible. (I know better than to route through San Francisco in the fall -- it is often fogged in all morning -- but I took a chance and lost the bet.):

National Bureau of Economic Research
Economics Fluctuations & Growth Research Meeting
Paul Beaudry and John Leahy, Organizers
October 26, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of New York
10th Floor Benjamin Strong Room
33 Liberty Street New York, NY

Program

Thursday, October 25:

6:30 pm Reception and Dinner Federal Reserve Bank of New York (enter at 44 Maiden Lane) 1st Floor Dining Room

Friday, October 26:

8:30 am Continental Breakfast

9:00 am Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER Erik Hurst, University of Chicago and NBER Charles Jones, Stanford University and NBER Peter Klenow, Stanford University and NBER The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth Discussant:  Raquel Fernandez, New York University and NBER

10:00 am Break

10:30 am Fatih Guvenen, University of Minnesota and NBER Serdar Ozkan, Federal Reserve Board Jae Song, Social Security Administration The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk Discussant:  Jonathan Heathcote, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

11:30 am Loukas Karabarbounis, University of Chicago and NBER Brent Neiman, University of Chicago and NBER Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Savings Discussant:  Robert Hall, Stanford University and NBER

12:30 pm Lunch

1:30 pm Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Columbia University and NBER Martin Uribe, Columbia University and NBER Prudential Policy for Peggers Discussant:  Gianluca Benigno, London School of Economics

2:30 pm Break

3:00 pm Eric Swanson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates Discussant:  James Hamilton, University of California at San Diego and NBER

4:00 pm Alisdair McKay, Boston University Ricardo Reis, Columbia University and NBER The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle Discussant:  Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California at Berkeley and NBER

5:00 pm Adjourn

Cue The Jimmy Buffet Playlist

Tim Duy reports from French Polynesia:

Cue The Jimmy Buffet Playlist, by Tim Duy

He seems to like it.

Have Blog, Will Travel

Short travel day by train. Next stop: Lindau, Germany for this year's Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting dedicated to Physics.

Here's the program for the firsmorning:

09.00 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
Brian P. Schmidt: Observations, and the Standard Model of Cosmology

09.30 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
John C. Mather: Seeing Farther with New Telescopes

10.00 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
George F. Smoot: Mapping the Universe in Space and Time

11.00 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
Paul J. Crutzen: Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in the Anthropocene

11.30
Plenary Lecture
Main Hall
Mario J. Molina
The Science and Policy of Climate Change

12.00 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
Ivar Giaever: The Strange Case of “Global Warming”

12.30 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
Hartmut Michel: Photosynthesis, Biomass, Biofuels: Conversion Efficiencies and Consequences

I'm particularly interested in the sessions on climate change.

 

Elephant Underpass

Elephant populations are becoming increasingly fragmented:

Road to Recovery?, National Geographic: An African elephant approaches an underpass beneath the busy Nanyuki-Meru road in northern Kenya...

Photograph courtesy Lewa Wildlife Conservancy

The first of its kind for elephants, the underpass will ideally provide a safe corridor for the large mammals to move throughout the Mount Kenya region (map), where highways, fences, and farmlands have split elephant populations, according to Geoffrey Chege, chief conservation officer of the Lewa Wildlife Conservancy, a Kenya-based nonprofit.

Without the underpass, animals that try to move between isolated areas often destroy fences and crops—leading to conflicts with people.

Since its completion in late 2010, the underpass has been a "tremendous success"—hundreds of elephants have been spotted walking through the corridor...

Photograph courtesy Lewa Wildlife Conservancy

At first, only adult male elephants ventured through the underpass, and then only at night.

But before long whole family groups were passing through during the day...

Image courtesy Lewa Wildlife Conservancy

Currently the region's elephant populations are divided into two isolated groups: 2,000 animals in Mount Kenya and 7,500 in the Samburu-Laikipia ecosystem, according to the Lewa Wildlife Conservancy.

The elephant underpass ... could improve the genetic health of northern Kenya elephants, since more genes will mix as the animals move into various territories and find new mates.

The corridor may also mean that elephants will move around more, reducing pressure on habitats—and possibly helping other species that use the same resources, such as the black rhinoceros, according to the conservancy. ...

Have Blog, Will Travel

Just a quick note. I have a somewhat brutal travel schedule the next few days, and when all is said and done, I ought to be in Nairobi, Kenya:

IRP’s International Bloggers Take on Reproductive Health in Kenya: Twelve international bloggers have been selected to report on pressing issues of reproductive health and population in Kenya this month.

In an exciting new global initiative, the International Reporting Project (IRP) is taking a group of 12 influential bloggers from around the world to Kenya on June 17-26 for an in-depth examination of reproductive health and population issues in that East African country.

Watch the IRP website for regular updates from the bloggers, and follow them on Twitter as they recount their impressions and observations of Kenya. This is the first time in its 15-year history that the IRP is taking a group of new media journalists from different countries around the world to focus on a specific global issue. The 12 bloggers come from eight countries and represent a unique diverse set of specialties – including religion, ethics, culture, economics and gender issues in the developed world. In an intensive schedule that will take them to three different regions of Kenya, the bloggers will talk to Kenyan parents and children, health officials, rural and urban citizens and experts on gender, religion and ethics. Kenya’s population is expected to double by 2040 and the country faces major health challenges, urban migration and environmental pressures caused by this rapidly growing population. [list of participants]

They know that I am not an expert on women's reproductive health issues, though I will talk about related economic issues, but my main focus will be on economic problems in Kenya (I already have around 10 background posts set to go). And no, you aren't the first person to make an Obama joke.

After that, I'm going to this year's Nobel meetings in Lindau, Germany (the meetings bring Nobel laureates together with 500-600 graduate students from around the world). I'll stop over in Zurich for three days first, but since I was going through Zurich anyway on the way back from Kenya, I figured why not go to Lindau too -- it isn't very far away. I went last year when the topic was economics, but this year the Nobel winners are from chemistry and physics. Since it isn't economics I was surprised to be invited, and had to be accredited as press to get in (ha, I was), but there are issues related to economics, e.g. global warming that I want to cover. But mostly I'm looking forward to hearing talks on something other than economics. It will be a nice break, and for the most part I have no idea what I'll be hearing (or writing about).

Then, home for 4 days and off to Boston for an NBER meeting, and some other stuff. Finally home in late July.

I am going to do my best to keep up with the blog. I have at least two posts already loaded for each day of the time I'll be in Kenya, we have been promised internet access daily and some blogging time (though nothing like usual -- withdrawals!), and I have an unlocked iPhone that I hope to load with a sim chip and tons of prepaid data (from Safaricom). We'll see how that goes, but if it works I can (fingers crossed) tether to my computer and have fairly good internet access. But I have no idea what's ahead, and I hope you will understand if I am not able to keep up with links in particular on the usual, regular schedule. I'll try, but realistically it will be hard.

I never would have guessed that an economics blog would bring so much travel.

Ich Bin Ein Berliner

Long, long travel day today. Will post as I can.

Over the River and Through the Woods

Heading over the river and through the woods today, and hoping the snow on the pass doesn't stop me from getting to grandma's house.

[There are posts scheduled for later today.]

Travel

I'm traveling here today. I'll post as (and if) I can. (I have ten posts scheduled for the next several days just in case, mostly of the here's x saying y variety.)

Travel

I'm traveling here today. I'll post as (and if) I can.

Over the River and Through the Woods

Watching my daughter Amy run in the Eugene Marathon(update: 3:59:40, a PR) then traveling here (by car) -- will post as I can.

Intermittent Access

Long travel day today. Going here.

Day after Day

When I first started this blog, I had no expectations at all. I thought a few people might visit, family and acquaintances mostly, and I wasn't so sure about them, but nothing more than that. But, surprisingly to me, it slowly began gathering more and more visitors after some noteworthy help from other bloggers that brought it to people's attention. I was lucky to get that help, and entering the econoblogosphere earlier rather than later didn't hurt either.

As the number of visitors started growing, I became afraid that if I missed a day posting, the traffic growth would somehow stop, the regulars would go away, etc. I'm not sure what the fear was exactly looking back now, but being relatively risk averse I posted every day, always promising myself that once the traffic growth leveled off and things stabilized, I'd take a break. At least for a day or two.

As far as I can recall, I haven't missed a single day in the five and a third years that I've been doing this. Maybe there was a day somewhere, but I can't remember one. Mostly I don't mind, this has been the most surprising thing I've ever done and there's always something new and unexpected around the next corner, some good, some I'd rather not have to deal with, but it does pass the time. I have trouble pulling myself away from blogging rather than having to force myself to do it, but there are days now and again when posts are a bit forced and I tell myself that I really, really need a break from this. Especially, when, as lately, I find myself getting pretty cranky at small provocations (and the things I don't say...).

Traffic is still growing, though the pace has slowed, particularly since the financial crisis has eased, but the fear that somehow it would all evaporate if I miss a day or two, or whatever it was I was afraid of, is not as strong as it once was. But I still can't do it. I still can't bring myself to voluntarily miss a day (I know, I know).

However, I need to get away for a bit, at least from the usual surroundings. In part it's because I've agreed to be Associate Department Head for the next two years and that will keep me plenty busy. It's about to begin, so this is the last chance to get away before that happens.

So I am leaving Eugene today. Where am I going? I have no idea, I just decided to do this, so I am simply going to get in the car and see where I end up. The most likely direction initially is east, maybe south, but that's about all I know. I did this once before and it turned out well, so I'll just go where I feel like it each day and see what happens, starting with today.

I'll do my best to keep posting every day, but I may end up doing a lot of "echo" posts, i.e. a very short here's whatever followed by excerpts (as I do generally when time is short). I'll try to keep up on daily links. We'll see how it goes.

On the Road Again...

Traveling here today. Comments are open...