The Oregon Deparment of Employment releases the state jobs report next Monday. The last report was dreadful, with Oregon loosing 21,700 jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 10.8%, third highest in the nation. Will the next report be any better? Maybe a little, but I am not looking for any miracles.
This decade we are seeing a strong year-over-year job growth relationship between the US and Oregon:
The relationship looks remarkably tight since January 2007:
Assuming this decade's relationship holds in March, the 3.5% (log approximations) drop in US nonfarm payrolls compared to last year suggests a 5.1% drop for Oregon. This puts nonfarm payrolls in March at 1,647.1k, a decline of 7,842 from February 2009 (The steep drops in January and February Oregon nonfarm payrolls limits the month-over-month levels decline necessary to reach a 5.1% y-o-y decline). This would place March 2009 payrolls at levels last seen in May 2005 (1,645.5k).
I would expect this model to error on the optimistic side. A monthly job loss of 7,800 would be on par with some of the worst months during the 2001-2003 period. This time, however, initial jobless claims are running at a level roughly 45% higher:
Bottom line: It looks like March was another tough month for the Oregon labor market. Look for NFP to decline by at least 7,800. Unemployment will have a 11% handle.
